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MANIFOLD
How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics
11
Ṁ15kṀ17k
resolved Jun 10
Resolved
NO
41+
Resolved
NO
30-40
Resolved
YES
20-29
Resolved
NO
13-19
Resolved
NO
6-12
Resolved
NO
1-5

Attendee count includes Barak and any staff present, and will be a best-effort max point-in-time count taken by Barak. As in, resolves to the highest number of people attending the session between 4p and 5p.

Session details below, and RSVPs are on schedule.less.online.

Repolarize American Politics: How to make the two-party system irrelevant

Saturday, 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM. Location: Gyroscope, Lighthaven, Berkeley

With negative polarization at an all-time high and memes like prediction markets and ranked-choice voting gaining steam, American Politics Company believes the time is right to redefine political affiliation in a nonpartisan way. Come learn how America's loss of a shared informational commons and toxic polarization has been 50 years in the making, how Manifold is already improving politics in San Francisco, and how we can all express our political identities proudly, in a healthier way. Can read more context at americanpolitics.co

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I believe we narrowly hit 20-22ish

as folks dropped by near the tail end of the session. here's a photo showing 2/3 of the room from a bit earlier on. wish I remembered at the time to take an exact count.

I had more than 20 attend my session today at Less Online, more narrowly about San Francisco politics. The slides are at bit.ly/less-online

I'm just curious, what is this 'Plus' thing?

@PeterBuyukliev It means the market has more liquidity (and cost more to make)

Shouldn't this be multiple choice dependent?

@EvanDaniel that would be the more natural choice but there's nothing about this market that's actually broken

@jim Yeah, the probabilities adding to 115% (at time of writing) is... well, I'd call it broken, and not working as presumably intended by the author, but that's kinda splitting hairs on what counts as broken. It's definitely wasting liquidity. But yes, people can bet in (mostly) reasonable ways here and it will (presumably) resolve in a self-consistent and accurate fashion.

@EvanDaniel I'm sorry I missed it up. is there a way I can make it dependent? otherwise I'll just deal with it lol

@barak Not that I know of without re-creating it from scratch.