Resolves YES if Trump has a higher probability of winning the election than Harris according to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964. Resolves NO if this hasn't happened by the time this market closes (a day before the election).

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/jim/trump-to-pass-harris, except it uses Manifold's probability rather than that of Election Betting Odds.

Clarifications: Even a second of Trump's probability > Harris' probability counts. Since the election market is a crystal market and this one is a basic market, I'm not too worried about someone manipulating the other market for the sole purpose of resolving this one. Also, Trump's probability must be greater than Harris', if they are tied, this doesn't resolve YES. If it comes down to the wire, I will look at the trading log to determine the resolution. To keep myself unbiased, I won't bet here.

Please ping me if this does happen to get a faster resolution.

Update 8/19 6:48 PM EST: Changed title from Will Trump pass Harris [Manifold version]? to Will Trump pass Harris [on Manifold]?