Will a candidate in the upcoming POTUS election win all seven swing states?

Swing states for the purposes of this market are the same as the ones currently on Manifold's election dashboard: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Even if Manifold decides to change the dashboard, these same seven states will be used to resolve this question.

The question closes the day before the election, and it will be resolved as soon as results are known.

@diracdeltafunk Yes. Keeping the market open doesn't provide much useful information, and it costs me as the AMM.

Edit: I was confused here and retract this comment.

I think the probability in this market is way too high. In Nate Silver's model, Wisconsin and Nevada are approximately 50-50, and Pennsylvania and Michigan are slightly off 50-50 but in directions that approximately cancel each other out. So unless I'm missing something, the probability is approximately that of a coin flip turning up heads 4 times in a row, which is 6.25%. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

@SoniaAlbrecht the outcomes of swing states in a presidential election are highly correlated. if one believes PA & MI are each 50%, the odds that a given candidate wins both are much higher than 25%.

FWIW, nate's model actually provides its own estimate of "someone sweeps 7 swing states" if you want to see how he approaches this (his probability is indeed many times higher than if the states were independentโattempting to model these correlations is at the heart of what nate is trying to do)

@bagelfan how do you post a link to a market like that where it gives you the visual and not just the link?