Resolves to all states where the margin of victory in the 2040 POTUS election is less than 5%.
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Hm, people are pretty confident that the swing states that are currently very close will stay that way in 2040. I don't think this is a reliable assumptions, just look at Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Iowa. As recently as 2012, they were all considered quintessential swing states. Now all four are basically out of play for this presidential election. I could easily imagine that Arizona and Georgia continue their leftward trajectory and become blue states by 2040, or that Florida becomes a more solidly red state. The rust belt seems like it will stay competitive, but you never know when a political realignment is going to completely change how it votes.
Another problem is that even if all these states are still swing states in 2040, they still might not have a margin of <5%, since that's a pretty tight margin. There could be a wave election that year, or a candidate could just happen to do very well in some of the swing states
@bohaska There's not enough liquidity to bet a whole lot yet. I don't want to move the probability super far down, I just don't think any states should be at higher than 75% this far out, which some of them were at before.