[Subsidized 10K] Will all seven states (NC, GA, PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV) swing blue in November?
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Plus
223
Ṁ60k
Nov 6
20%
chance

Clarifying resolution criteria:

[YES] Dems wins a plurality of votes in the Presidential election in all seven states listed.

[NO] One or more of the seven states is won by the Republican candidate.

While the suggested criteria of the change in the margin between the two major parties is really intriguing, Dems won 6 of the 7 states in 2020. IMO, for those 6, it would only mean an increased margin which is not a terribly impactful result and would reduce the poll to shifting margins in NC. I’m really trying to gauge the public sentiment as we approach Election Day about the composite of these 7 states that will determine the overall outcome.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

22% in the Silver Bulletin

Nate’s model runs as of this morning (9/29) have the most likely outcome on the seven swing states being a Harris sweep in 15,273 of the 70k iterations (~21.8%).

Nate Silver’s model has Harris winning all seven swing states at 20%

Since NC maybe the most interesting toss up in this set of 7 battleground states, I created another poll to gauge how close people think the election will be there.

I like this market a bunch, thanks for making it!

If folks want to bet on finer details, I made a market for how many:

/EvanDaniel/close-states-how-many-of-7-will-vot

bought Ṁ2,000 NO

"[YES] Harris wins the majority of votes in all seven states listed." Plurality will also count, right?

Apologies, yes you’re correct.

@SpaceboyLuke I see that the clarifying criteria you added mention the candidates by name, but since the original question is about "blue" rather than "Harris", I assume that if one or both candidates are replaced for some reason, the question can still resolve yes or no based on the party that wins?

While I don’t expect any more changes to the tickets, yes that’s a good clarifying point. I’ll edit to only reference the party rather than the explicit candidate name.

@SpaceboyLuke Can you clarify what the resolution criteria for this are?

what does swing blue mean? Does it count the state percentage margin becoming more dem? or does Kamala have to win all the states?

Oh shoot good question! I had assumed it just meant “vote dem”

Me too @benshindel

The use of swing implies a shift, not a flip. i.e. a state could "swing red" but still be won by Harris, just by a smaller margin than 2020 and a state could "swing blue" but still be won by Trump (NC). It would also be good to clarify if the swing is measured by D-R margin (what I would recommend) or by pure vote share (which would be diluted by increased 3rd party voting this election).

I can't see NC going blue

It was only 1% off or so last time. Otoh Harris isn't polling as well as Biden overall and especially in the south, I think.

Harris is up by 2 points in NC in the last Times/Siena poll