Clarifying resolution criteria:
[YES] Dems wins a plurality of votes in the Presidential election in all seven states listed.
[NO] One or more of the seven states is won by the Republican candidate.
While the suggested criteria of the change in the margin between the two major parties is really intriguing, Dems won 6 of the 7 states in 2020. IMO, for those 6, it would only mean an increased margin which is not a terribly impactful result and would reduce the poll to shifting margins in NC. I’m really trying to gauge the public sentiment as we approach Election Day about the composite of these 7 states that will determine the overall outcome.
I like this market a bunch, thanks for making it!
If folks want to bet on finer details, I made a market for how many:
@SpaceboyLuke I see that the clarifying criteria you added mention the candidates by name, but since the original question is about "blue" rather than "Harris", I assume that if one or both candidates are replaced for some reason, the question can still resolve yes or no based on the party that wins?
what does swing blue mean? Does it count the state percentage margin becoming more dem? or does Kamala have to win all the states?
The use of swing implies a shift, not a flip. i.e. a state could "swing red" but still be won by Harris, just by a smaller margin than 2020 and a state could "swing blue" but still be won by Trump (NC). It would also be good to clarify if the swing is measured by D-R margin (what I would recommend) or by pure vote share (which would be diluted by increased 3rd party voting this election).