L

Shouldn't this be more likely than Trump winning the popular vote, since all swing states vote more Republican than the country as a whole?

@SentientTree that may be true, but if he loses just one swing state state by a tiny margin and wins the rest, the market resolves no.

True, but I still think Trump sweeping the swing states and losing the popular vote is more likely than Trump losing a swing state and winning the popular vote.

@SentientTree both are on the order of 30%

The popular vote and winning all swing states are correlated heavily but if you isolate the two events into their orthogonal parts.

The popular vote is more about the margins in New York, California and whether the solid Red states shift left or right.

I think models like Silver, 538 would disagree with you.

It essentially depends on how much you think the swing states are correlated amongst themselves and to the NPV.

20% chance according to the Silver Bulletin

22.0% now https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Here is the market considering only Harris.

https://manifold.markets/SpaceboyLuke/subsidized-10k-will-all-seven-state