What will be the earliest option alphabetically with >= 30% probability when I resolve this market?
Basic
50
แน€654k
resolved Aug 28
100%94%
A
4%
B
1.0%
C
0.3%
D

E.g. if the market is at 20/20/30/30 it will resolve to option C.

I will close and resolve this market at a randomly selected time during the month of August (Pacific Time), already known to me but no one else.

I will not be trading on this market.

Get แน€1,000 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€376,544
2แน€23,094
3แน€6,091
4แน€1,257
5แน€953
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(Wii Sports tennis announcer voice)

The A team wins!

Finally!

Part of my strategy here was keeping my big mouth shut, but this market has been stressing me.

opened a แน€100 A NO at 94% order

Why is this unlisted? Are whalebaits banned now?

significant whalebaits have been unlisted since after wvm lol

opened a แน€280 A YES at 32% order

Oh I never knew that

wvm?

bought แน€50 A NO

One of the original high stakes whalebait markets

This is such a weird market. With just แน€401 on C right now, you can move it to 41%.

opened a แน€10,000 B NO at 99.0% order

I'm not sure but I think according to current manifold policy, you (Aryeh) can't trade on this right before closing and resolving it because that creates an obvious conflict of interest

I think the creator has agreed to this, look at the first comment and the reply.

Also, do you want to join in with a big bet on C? Now that would make it really interesting.

no

I think manifold should ban whalebait and n/a this personally.

I have never intended to trade on this market, and I've added that fact to the description.

The real plot twist comes when an even bigger fish arrives and weighs down on C.

Game theory says A is easy mana.

Over 2x the investment needs to be placed in B in order for that to beat A, since A just needs over 30% to win.

Another challenge for B is the ROI for manifold markets rewarding lower probabilities. The higher B gets, the more attractive A becomes as it has a higher payout.

B-lievers are fighting an uphill battle I'm afraid.

That's true... except for the fact that @BlakeWoolley, who has a much larger balance than current A holders, has joined B. If no one else joins A, Blake will crush them.

Genuinely would not mind losing my entire balance if that resolves to be true! ๐Ÿ˜‚

This market might prove to be more interesting than it seemed at first glance. :)

A is fighting back!

But Blake won't go down easy! He drops a massive 20k to bump the boulder back to B!

Can he do it?!

Can one man take on the world?

This is getting intense!

Here's another self-resolving market:

Shoot, I got burned by this market. I didn't realize A has such a big advantage over B. Selling my B stock now.

I B-lieve in you! B for the win!

Ooh! Looks like someone with deep pockets has came in to make A bettors pay! I wonder if they will succeed!