Will it be revealed that China has a secret human genetic engineering program that dates back to 2023 before 2033?
Basic
31
625
2033
45%
chance

May resolve based on partial evidence if I am convinced. Will let a team of moderators adjudicate in case of controversy. I won't bet.

Cannot be the project of a rogue actor acting without at least tacit government approval.

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China the state, or independent actors within China?

@SoundsNentindo nvm I need to read Better

Could you disambiguate government/party/individual actor threshold for the market.

Might get clearer on the distinction between “[government] has program” versus “powerful individual, with assent of party, has program”.

@mcint Will do

@mcint out of interest, what's the most significant "powerful individual, with assent of party, has program" example from PRC in your estimation?

predicts NO

@mcint bump

@JoshuaWilkes Did gain of function research happen? Official records say no, ~I could find a trove of articles saying so. Is that rogue? This is a clear case.

To do anything, err to be anyone you almost have to be a member of the party. Are your actions then rogue or approved.

Everything is rogue (overlooked or halted) until its useful to the party, or part of it.

I think betting on whether or not the research happening, is more interesting than where credit falls if and when we hear about it. I don’t think we’ll hear the full story, and want to argue “did it happen” not “who really approved it” or supported it in secret.

Tech companies and billionaires have been worth muzzling or disappearing by the regime. PLA and PLAN generals are being purged in the last few months, same type of charges, corruption, on which the current chairman rose to chairmanship and iron grip. The party judges these people to have enough influence to do big things.

predicts NO

@mcint thanks

@mcint Good point, I'll take that into account

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