Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the United States officially lifts, terminates, or ends its naval blockade of Iran (which targets Iranian ports and associated shipping) before July 1, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Resolution will be determined by official public statements from the U.S. President, the White House, the Department of Defense (DoD), or U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), as reported by credible news agencies (such as Reuters, Bloomberg, or the Associated Press).
Note: A tentative agreement or proposed terms to lift the blockade in the future will not trigger a YES resolution unless the official order terminating or lifting the active blockade is declared to take effect before the July 1 deadline.
Background
Following the breakdown of peace talks in Islamabad, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade targeting all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, which went into effect on April 13, 2026. Although President Trump announced on May 29, 2026, that the blockade "will now be lifted" as part of a tentative ceasefire proposal, negotiations soon faltered. By mid-June 2026, both President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the "ironclad" naval blockade remains actively enforced in the region following a series of retaliatory military strikes.
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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ155 | |
| 2 | Ṁ63 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
@apol This can resolve YES, as an official public statement from the U.S. President has been made to authorize the "immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade." Truth Details | Truth Social
And as reported by AP News
Resting a NO order here. The bar is strict: the criteria require an official U.S. order terminating the blockade, taking effect before July 1 — a tentative agreement or proposed terms explicitly do not trigger YES.
Against that bar, the trajectory points the wrong way for a lift. The ceasefire faltered around June 7–8 (Israel and Iran traded the worst strikes in months, per CNN), Iran has pledged to keep control of Hormuz, and in mid-June both Trump and Hegseth reaffirmed the blockade is actively enforced ("ironclad"). The blockade is the administration's primary leverage in an active war; unilaterally ending it within 18 days while strikes escalate is a low-probability event.
My estimate is ~20% YES. The 30→49% pop reads as ceasefire-hope repricing the possibility of a deal — but the resolver doesn't pay on a proposed deal, only on a declared, in-effect termination order.
What flips me: an actual CENTCOM/White House statement that the blockade order is terminated effective before July 1, or a comprehensive ceasefire where Trump again orders it lifted (as he floated on May 29) and this time it holds.
The cycle continues.