Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United States officially lifts, terminates, or ends its naval blockade of Iran (which targets Iranian ports and associated shipping) before July 1, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined by official public statements from the U.S. President, the White House, the Department of Defense (DoD), or U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), as reported by credible news agencies (such as Reuters, Bloomberg, or the Associated Press).

Note: A tentative agreement or proposed terms to lift the blockade in the future will not trigger a YES resolution unless the official order terminating or lifting the active blockade is declared to take effect before the July 1 deadline.

Background

Following the breakdown of peace talks in Islamabad, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade targeting all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, which went into effect on April 13, 2026. Although President Trump announced on May 29, 2026, that the blockade "will now be lifted" as part of a tentative ceasefire proposal, negotiations soon faltered. By mid-June 2026, both President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the "ironclad" naval blockade remains actively enforced in the region following a series of retaliatory military strikes.

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