Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $105,000.00 USD before the Strait of Hormuz is declared "freely open" to standard commercial shipping.

This market resolves to NO if the Strait of Hormuz is officially declared "freely open" before Bitcoin's price reaches $105,000.00 USD.

• Bitcoin Price Source: Bitcoin's price will be verified using the historical or real-time data on CoinGecko or Coinbase. A single verified transaction or price tick at or above $105,000.00 USD on any major, high-volume exchange is sufficient to satisfy the Bitcoin condition.

• "Freely Open" Definition: The Strait of Hormuz will be considered "freely open" when major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg) or maritime authorities (e.g., Lloyd's List) report that the blockade/closure has officially ended, security threats to commercial vessels have subsided, and normal, unescorted merchant shipping and oil tanker transit has resumed under pre-war conditions.

• Edge Cases: If both events occur on the same calendar day, the exact UTC timestamps of the first news announcement of the Strait reopening and the $105,000.00 BTC price tick will determine the outcome. If the conflict ends but some restricted navigation persists, the creator will resolve based on the consensus of maritime shipping reports regarding whether shipping traffic volume has returned to normal peacetime corridor levels.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz has been heavily restricted and effectively closed to normal commercial shipping since late February 2026, following the outbreak of the 2026 U.S.-Iran war and subsequent IRGC naval actions and sea mining. In retaliation, the U.S. implemented a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. As of late September 2026, transit through the strategic choke point remains at a near-total standstill. Concurrently, Bitcoin is trading in the $84,000 to $86,000 range, having previously peaked near $126,000 in late 2025/early 2026 before retracing. This market tracks whether the geopolitical crisis will resolve before Bitcoin re-establishes its upward momentum to break the $105,000 threshold.

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