Resolution Criteria
* Market Start & Effective Window: This market only evaluates events and price movements occurring on or after the market creation date (September 29, 2026, 21:00 GMT+8 / 13:00 UTC). Prior historical events (including the June 2026 temporary ceasefire and framework agreement) form part of the pre-market background and will not retroactively trigger resolution.
* Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $105,000.00 USD before the Strait of Hormuz is officially and fully declared "freely open" to standard commercial shipping.
* Resolves NO if the Strait of Hormuz is officially and fully declared "freely open" before Bitcoin's price reaches $105,000.00 USD.
"Freely Open" Definition (De Jure & De Facto)
The Strait of Hormuz will be considered "freely open" only when both of the following criteria are met:
* De Jure Official Declarations: Official, formal claims from the governments/military authorities of both the United States and Iran explicitly stating that all blockades, counter-blockades, and closures have officially ended.
* De Facto Sustained Resumption: Major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg) or maritime authorities (e.g., Lloyd's List) report that security threats have subsided, and normal, unescorted merchant shipping and oil tanker transit volume has returned to sustained pre-war corridor levels.
* Note: Brief, temporary increases in vessel traffic or temporary ceasefire windows without full bilateral declarations and sustained unescorted transit do not satisfy this condition.
Bitcoin Price Source
Bitcoin's price will be verified using historical or real-time data on CoinGecko or Coinbase. A single verified transaction or price tick at or above $105,000.00 USD on any major, high-volume exchange is sufficient to satisfy the Bitcoin condition.
Market Close Date & Extensions
The close date of this market will be extended periodically as long as neither condition has been met. This market will not resolve to N/A due to time expiration, and will remain active until one of the two outcomes definitively occurs.
Edge Cases
If both events occur on the same calendar day after creation, the exact UTC timestamps of the first official news announcement of the Strait reopening and the $105,000.00 BTC price tick will determine the outcome. If the conflict ends but minor navigation restrictions persist, the market will resolve based on the consensus of maritime shipping reports regarding whether shipping traffic volume has returned to normal peacetime levels.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz has been heavily restricted and effectively closed to normal commercial shipping since late February 2026, following the outbreak of the 2026 U.S.-Iran war and subsequent IRGC naval actions and sea mining. In retaliation, the U.S. implemented a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. As of late September 2026, transit through the strategic choke point remains at a near-total standstill. Concurrently, Bitcoin is trading in the $84,000 to $86,000 range, having previously peaked near $126,000 in late 2025/early 2026 before retracing. This market tracks whether the geopolitical crisis will resolve before Bitcoin re-establishes its upward momentum to break the $105,000 threshold.
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@apol can you define freely open better? Like the blockade sort of did end and then was closed again already. But for a brief period of time during the ceasefire 40+boats per day were getting out. Why didn't that count?
@HillaryClinton That brief period didn't count because for the Strait to be considered truly resolved, both de jure and de facto confirmation is required. While some boats managed to get out during the temporary ceasefire, there were no official claims or declarations from both the U.S. and Iran formally ending their respective blockades. A temporary pause in hostilities doesn't meet the threshold. It only counts when there are official de jure declarations from both the U.S. and Iran fully lifting the closures, alongside a de facto return to normal, unescorted pre-war shipping volumes.
To prevent further misconception, I’ve updated the resolution criteria to "Freely Open" Definition: The Strait of Hormuz will be considered "freely open" when there is both de jure and de facto confirmation of unrestricted transit. This requires official, formal claims from the governments of both the United States and Iran that all blockades, counter-blockades, and closures have ended (de jure). Additionally, major international news outlets or maritime authorities (e.g., Lloyd's List) must confirm that security threats have subsided and normal, unescorted merchant shipping has resumed under sustained, pre-war conditions (de facto). Temporary spikes in traffic during ceasefires without official bilateral declarations do not count.
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@deagol The close date will be extended periodically until one of the two conditions is met, and will not resolve to N/A due to time expiry.