Will Bitcoin hit $95,000 before a formal US-Iran ceasefire is signed?

Question

Resolves YES if Bitcoin closes above $95,000 on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) before a formal ceasefire or peace deal between the US/Israel coalition and Iran is officially announced. Resolves NO if ceasefire is signed first without BTC reaching $95k. Resolves NO if neither happens by Dec 31 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (3 traders, as of Mar 30, 2026).

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