Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official general election ballots for the November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate elections in Maine (ME) and South Carolina (SC), and whether the respective nominees also ran for Governor (IN THE SAME STATE, FOR THE SAME PARTY) in the 2026 election cycle.

• "The Democrat on the ballot for Senate in ME" refers to the candidate representing the Democratic Party on the general election ballot for the U.S. Senate in Maine.

• "The Republican on the ballot for Senate in SC" refers to the candidate representing the Republican Party on the general election ballot for the U.S. Senate in South Carolina.

• An individual is considered a "2026 Gov candidate" if they ran an official campaign for Governor in the same state and for the same party as they are on the ballot for in the Senate general election.

Resolution Options:

• Yes, both: Both the final ME Democratic Senate nominee and the SC Republican Senate nominee were 2026 gubernatorial candidates.

• Only the Democrat in Maine: The ME Democratic Senate nominee was a 2026 gubernatorial candidate, but the SC Republican Senate nominee was not.

• Only the Republican in South Carolina: The SC Republican Senate nominee was a 2026 gubernatorial candidate, but the ME Democratic Senate nominee was not.

• Neither: Neither nominee was a 2026 gubernatorial candidate.

The market will resolve once the general election ballots in both states are finalized and the identities of both nominees are official. Official state election portals—the Maine Department of the Secretary of State and the South Carolina Election Commission—will serve as the sources of truth.

As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.

Background

Both the Maine and South Carolina U.S. Senate races experienced major disruptions in July 2026, forcing both parties to select replacement nominees:

• Maine: Graham Platner won the June 9 Democratic primary but announced his withdrawal in July 2026. The Maine Democratic Party has until July 27, 2026, to select a replacement nominee.

• South Carolina: Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham won the June 9 GOP primary but died in office on July 11, 2026. Under state law, a special primary will be held on August 11, 2026, to choose a replacement nominee.

• Both states had a number of candidates run and do well in their respective parties' gubernatorial primaries, who would be logical choices for the replacement Senate candidates.