@alh this can resolve NO, the election is happening today.

There have been rumours circulating for a few days that due to the terrible start to the campaign, Sunak will resign and let someone else (Cameron) take over the campaigning. Almost certainly nonsense drummed up by somebody or other (and why anyone would think this is politically sensible is a mystery), but worth a clarification here. This market will resolve based on the acting leader of the conservative party, so if a new interim leader was nominated, this would resolve YES but merely announcing a new leadership election/intention to step down after the election would resolve NO.

The election has been announced for the 4th of July. Seems likely that Rishi will manage to hold on until then.

The only realistic path to a new leader is for the 1922 to call a VONC immediately (before dissolution of parliament next week) and parachute in a new unity candidate, this seems extremely unlikely but I guess it's still possible.

Arb with this market (unless you think Sunak will be ousted as PM but not Tory leader or v/v).