Will Bryan Caplan's next graphic novel be a New York Times Bestseller?
32
280Ṁ1943
resolved May 28
Resolved
NO

The last one was (https://www.econlib.org/open-borders-is-a-new-york-times-bestseller/), which sounds terribly impressive, until you realize that "Graphic Novel" is a pretty niche corner of the list. But it is something!

His next book is described on his homepage (http://www.bcaplan.com/). As far as I'm aware it is still due out in early 2023.

I will update the close of bidding once the release date of the book is known. It will probably close a few days after the book comes out, but before it is possible to have direct knowledge of the items on the NYT list.

Sep 2, 3:36pm: He recently stated that it's now slated to appear in the fall of 2023, unfortunately.

Close date updated to 2023-09-01 11:59 pm

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reposted

The next graphic novel came out this month so I reopened this market.

@MichaelWheatley This book was published in 2024. He has a new book out but it's not a graphic novel. Still, Build, Baby, Build should count for this market. But I don't think it's been or ever will be a NYT Bestseller.

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 10% order

That's another way to say this market should resolve to NO.

@MachiNi you're right, I should have read closer. I don't see it on the bestseller lists, I've resolved the market NO.

Market creator seems to have been inactive for months and this closed Sep 1. Caplan's website indicates that he has 8 books out, but only Open Borders seems to be a graphic novel.

@BoltonBailey Really more like "graphic nonfiction"

predictedYES

Note that in Caplan's own terms, he calls Open Borders a "nonfiction graphic novel", i.e. he treats "graphic novel" as a medium that is often used for fiction but also can be nonfiction, as in the case of said book. His forthcoming Build, Baby, Build is also intended as a nonfiction graphic novel.

As Open Borders was already published at the time of this market's creation, the resolution should be based on Build, Baby, Build, which currently has a (much delayed) expected publication date of April 2024. Of course, if somehow he should publish a different graphic novel (nonfiction or otherwise) before it, that other one would be the relevant book for this market. But under no circumstances would an already-published book be the relevant one.

@zzq Agreed.

Seems like this would be more interesting to re-open until an appropriate time? That seems to fit with the previously demonstrated creator intent.

@EvanDaniel Reopening accordingly.

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