Will the Senate suspend the fillibuster by Sep 15?

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resolved Oct 28

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June 30, from WSJ: Breaking: President Biden said he supports suspending the filibuster, if necessary, to codify Roe v. Wade into law https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1542502604126662657

Jul 1, 6:58am: This question will resolve to YES if the cloture rule is temporarily/permanently changed before Sep 15 so that a simple majority can end a filibuster on a bill (not appointment).

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predictedYES

Ok, last call before a NO resolution - AFAIK, this didn't happen

predictedNO

@akhil Is this going to resolve?

predictedYES

Resolving this to NO tomorrow unless I missed something

predictedNO

@akhil The resolution date is 9/15 and today is 9/5 :)

predictedYES

@jack hah - thanks. wait we shall

Due to the broad wording of the question, it would appear to apply to the suspension of the filibuster for the approval of federal judges and other types of Presidential appointments that require Senate approval. Since those kinds of approvals (and requisite suspensions of the filibuster) have been occurring routinely for nearly a decade, the answer to this question is almost certainly YES. See https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/22/us/politics/reid-sets-in-motion-steps-to-limit-use-of-filibuster.html

predictedNO

@steve Those were rule changes to the filibuster that were already made. I would assume a YES resolution is based on implementation of a new rule change that reduces the filibuster in at least some limited case. But it's a good point to clarify.

predictedNO

Any cloture vote could be thought of as "suspending a filibuster" (even the normal ones that require 60 votes), so I don't think that can be considered a useful interpretation of the question.

@steve my understanding of status quo is cloture requires 51 (or 50?) votes for appointments, and 60 for bills. This question will resolve to YES if any bill is passed between now and Sep 15 where the cloture rule was temporarily/permanently changed so that a simple majority could end a filibuster.

Updated the description with the resolution criteria (worded more accurately than my comment)

predictedNO

@akhil There are specific exceptions for some bills too, that allow them to pass with only a simple majority - budget reconciliation for example is one big one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate#Exceptions has more.

predictedNO

These exceptions do satisfy "a simple majority can end a filibuster on a bill" but not "the cloture rule is temporarily/permanently changed" because the exceptions existed before this market was created. So I'm still interpreting the question as whether a new exception is created that allows some bill to pass on a simple majority that otherwise would have required 60 votes - which is I think the most useful interpretation.

predictedYES

@jack Yes that was the spirit of the question, though I kinda botched the wording given all the exceptions you shared. Still, as you pointed out, "changed" is the operative word, and your interpretation is accurate.

predictedNO

Note that the question is also inclusive of suspending the filibuster for any other reason, but other possibilities seem much less likely.

Last month, a proposal to codify Roe failed 49-51, with Manchin voting against: https://businessinsider.mx/manchin-vote-against-democrats-bill-to-codify-roe-v-wade-2022-5/. Although Manchin said he would support a narrower measure. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/06/joe-manchin-republicans-legislation-restoring-roe-abortion-dobbs-reaction-sincere.html - Manchin says he supports legislation to codify Roe. For this to happen would essentially require getting Manchin to agree to some specific legislation to codify Roe, and require Manchin and Sinema to support suspending the filibuster for it, after having previously opposed suspending the filibuster for voting rights legislation.

@jack There is a reasonable case for how suspending the filibuster would lead to more bipartisanship and compromise on both sides (especially amonst moderates, even though the progressive wing is the one pushing for reform). And Roe possibly provides the needed incentive for Manchin and Sinema to consider changing their minds. But 20-30% seems about right.