Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act by April 30, 2026?
3
100Ṁ13
Apr 30
23%
chance

Context: There has been unrest following the fatal shooting of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis, subsequent statewide protest actions (including a planned day of no work/no school/no shopping), and Trump’s public threats to use the Insurrection Act to address protests.

Resolution criteria:

  • YES if, on or before April 30, 2026, Donald Trump, formally invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807, as evidenced by:

    • an official presidential proclamation or executive order explicitly citing the Insurrection Act, and

    • confirmation by at least one major national news wire (AP or Reuters).

  • NO if no such formal invocation occurs by the resolution date.


Clarifications:

  • Public statements, threats, warnings, or expressions of intent do not count.

  • Deployment of the National Guard without invoking the Insurrection Act does not count.

  • Invocation for any domestic situation or location counts; it does not need to be tied to a specific state or protest.

Market context
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A lot depends on how big turnout is in Minneapolis on Jan. 23 and whether the protests stay peaceful or escalate into violence. If large numbers of folks show up and things get tense, it could trigger Trump to act.

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