Research on nonviolent movements by Erica Chenoweth suggests that participation approaching 3.5% of the population has historically been associated with successful mass movements. For the United States, this corresponds to roughly 12 million people, depending on the population estimate used.
This market is motivated by reporting suggesting organizers and aligned activists have discussed a No Kings action around July 4, 2026, though it may not be formally announced yet.
According to official statements from No Kings organizers, the largest prior nationally coordinated No Kings day of action occurred on October 18, 2025, with organizers reporting approximately 7.0 million participants nationwide. Earlier nationwide actions, including the June 14, 2025 No Kings Day, were reported by organizers to have drawn more than 5 million participants.
Resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the official post-event announcement published on NoKings.org reports total participation of 12,000,000 or more.
A reported total of “12 million,” “at least 12 million,” or “more than 12 million” will be treated as meeting the threshold.
This market resolves NO if the reported total participation is below 12,000,000, or if no total participation estimate is published on NoKings.org within 30 days following the event.
The sole resolution source is the organizer’s official written statement on NoKings.org (for example, a news post or press release). Media reports, social media posts, or third-party estimates will not be used.
If multiple participation totals are published within the 30-day window, the latest published total will be used.
If multiple No Kings events occur, only the first event explicitly promoted on NoKings.org as a national “No Kings” day of action after market creation will be considered.
If no nationally coordinated No Kings day of action occurs on or before July 5, 2026, the market resolves NO.
Resolution deadline
August 3, 2026
Market closes
This market will close on June 30, 2026.
1,000