Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official attendance estimate provided by the Metropolitan Police Service (Met Police) regarding the "Unite the Kingdom" march in London held on 16 May 2026.

The primary source for this resolution will be official press releases or statements issued by the Metropolitan Police following the conclusion of the event. If the Metropolitan Police provide a range (e.g., "between 100,000 and 150,000"), the market will resolve to the midpoint of that range. In the absence of an official figure from the Met Police, other reputable national news outlets (such as the BBC, Sky News, or The Guardian) reporting on police estimates may be used as a secondary source.

If no official estimate is released, the market will resolve based on the consensus of major news organizations or, if necessary, the creator will use their discretion to resolve the market based on the most reliable reporting available at that time.

Background

The "Unite the Kingdom" (UtK) march, organized by Tommy Robinson (Stephen Yaxley-Lennon), is a demonstration scheduled for 16 May 2026 in central London. The event is set to proceed from Kingsway to Parliament Square via Aldwych and the Strand.

The 2026 march coincides with the FA Cup Final and a separate demonstration marking Nakba Day, leading to a significant police operation involving approximately 4,000 officers. Authorities have imposed strict public order conditions to manage the protests and prevent clashes between opposing groups. Previous iterations of the march have attracted varying crowd sizes, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 150,000 attendees. Leading up to the event, the UK government confirmed it had blocked several overseas speakers from entering the country, citing concerns over public order and the promotion of extremist views.

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