This market is intended to capture the moment GOP protection breaks, which historically precedes loss of effective power.

This market resolves based on whether any one of the following four Republican leaders publicly states that Trump’s action is unconstitutional, unlawful, or beyond his authority:

• Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

• John Thune (Senate Majority Leader)

• Tom Emmer (House Majority Whip)

• Jim Jordan (Chair, House Judiciary Committee)

The statement must be made in a public forum (press release, interview, speech, or official social media) and must concern a major presidential action, such as: use of military or federal force, foreign territory or sovereignty, national security, or defiance of court orders.

Resolution

• YES: If any one of the leaders (current officeholder or successor at time of statement) explicitly says Trump lacks authority or that his action is unconstitutional or unlawful as judged by at least 2 of 3 AIs (see below)

• NO: If none do so by 31 Dec 2026.

AI Judging Prompt:

You are judging a prediction market resolution.

Question: Does the following public statement by a Republican leader explicitly state that Trump lacks constitutional or legal authority to take a specific action?

Criteria:

• The statement must clearly assert lack of authority, illegality, or unconstitutionality.

• Statements expressing concern, criticism, disapproval, or urging restraint do not qualify unless they clearly deny authority.

Based only on the text provided, answer YES or NO, and give a one-sentence justification.