US Real (Inflation-adjusted) GDP has increased at an average rate of 3.2% per year since 1929. But some people are talking about AI dramatically accelerating GDP growth.
This resolves Yes if the Real GDP for Q4 2024 is at least 10% higher than Q4 2022 (5% average growth per year), according to this chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
The median Federal Reserve economic projection is currently 0.4% real GDP growth for 2023 and 1.2% real GDP growth for 2024.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1MD
And 5% average Real Growth over a 2 year period has not happened since 1984:
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May 2, 6:43pm: Will US Real GDP Growth rate average at least 5% for 2023 and 2024? → Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023 and 2024?