AI Summary of the new regulation:
In January 2025, the Biden Administration implemented sweeping new AI export controls through an "Interim Final Rule" days before leaving office. The regulation requires global licensing for AI/GPU exports and creates two tiers of countries: an "AI-20" group of 20 trusted countries with preferential access, and all other nations facing strict controls. Major tech companies like Oracle have criticized the restrictions as overly broad, and disruptive to US cloud providers due to the short notice. The rule establishes complex requirements including Universal Validated End User (UVEU) certifications for cloud providers and country-specific GPU deployment caps. As an executive branch regulation rather than legislation, a new administration would have the authority to modify or repeal it, though this would likely require a new rulemaking process.

This resolves YES if:

Within 100 days of taking office, the Trump administration either:

1. Fully repeals the "Export Control Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion" IFR OR

2. Suspends its enforcement OR

3. Replaces it with substantially looser restrictions that remove the global licensing requirement and AI-20 country restrictions

This may resolve to a percentage if some but not all of the January 2025 restrictions are repealed.

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated an intent to resolve the market to NO. This resolution appears based on:

  • The fact that no changes to the regulation have been made at the time of the comment.

  • The regulation's scheduled effective date being May 15th, which is after the market's close date (May 1st, 2025).

This suggests the market may resolve based on the status of the regulation before or at the market close date, rather than specifically waiting for actions within the first 100 days of a potential Trump administration (which would extend slightly beyond the market close date).