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When will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 15?

Will the Super Heavy booster explode during Starship Flight 15?

21% chance

Will Starship successfully deploy its payload during Flight 15?

90% chance

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

10% chance

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@ahalekelly Should resolve NO, thank you.

@mods Should resolve NO, thank you.

Sorry I was originally going to wait until IFT-5 to resolve, but considering it’s still weeks out because of delays, and we haven’t heard of any damage, I think a No resolution is fine

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

"After Hurricane Beryl passed the Brownsville area without seriously damaging Starbase"
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/07/booster-12-static-fires-pad-a-b-tower-stacking/

If there is a delay to flight 5, but no indication that it is due to Beryl, does that resolve no?

Latest I am aware of is 4 weeks from July 5 = ~Aug 3 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1809381756199661879

If there is a delay to flight 5 and some minor damage but no indication that the damage is causing any delay to flight 5, does that resolve no?

Yeah that's correct

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When will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 15?

Will the Super Heavy booster explode during Starship Flight 15?

21% chance

Will Starship successfully deploy its payload during Flight 15?

90% chance

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

10% chance

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