Description / Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on whether SpaceX's Super Heavy booster experiences a destructive explosion during Starship Flight 15, the 15th integrated Starship flight test.

YES If Super Heavy booster visibly undergoes a destructive explosion during the flight, descent, one hour period after splashdown or catch associated with Flight 15. The explosion must be confirmed by SpaceX or clearly established by official mission footage.

NO if the booster completes its flight and recovery (tower catch) sequence without a destructive explosion, including cases where it is successfully caught by the launch tower, lands or splashes down without exploding, or is lost or damaged without a qualifying explosion.

A controlled engine shutdown, an engine plume, a fire without a destructive explosion, or a hard landing alone does not count as an explosion. A soft water Splashdown without any noticable explosion is a No. An explosion after 1 hour after any kind of landing / splashdown is considered as a No. so an explosions during recovery or clean-up operations after one hour is a No.

Resolution Source: SpaceX's official livestream, official mission updates, and official post-flight statements. Reputable news coverage may be used as supporting evidence.

Deadline: This market concerns Starship Flight 15 only. If Flight 15 has not launched by Décember 30, 2026, the market resolves NO. If the flight launches by that date, resolution is based on the outcome of the booster event, even if the recovery sequence concludes afterward.