Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025? | Manifold

Will GPT-5 win Bronze or better at IMO 2025?

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34

Ṁ11k

2025

24%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

GPT-5 with scaffolding or access to tools counts as long as GPT-5 is making real decisions.

Resolves No if GPT-5 doesn’t score Bronze or higher, or if it does not does not exist by then, or nobody makes an IMO attempt by the end of August 2025

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Is it fine if it’s a math-specialized version of GPT-5 (involving math-specific post training consisting of, say, <5% of pretraining compute)?

Yeah that sounds reasonable

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Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?

Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?

Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

Will GPT-5 perform better than o1 (not preview) at AIME 2024, Codeforces elo, GPQA, or the 2024 ioi?

Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces?

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Will GPT-5 qualify for the USAMO?

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