Will a democratic governor be criminally indicted by the DOJ by EOY 2025?
2
100Ṁ40
2026
45%
chance

Background The Department of Justice (DOJ) has the authority to bring criminal charges against state governors for federal crimes. While indictments of sitting governors are relatively rare, they do occur when there is sufficient evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Currently, there are 24 Democratic governors serving across the United States.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if any currently serving Democratic governor, or someone who becomes a Democratic governor during the resolution period, is criminally indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve NO if no such indictment occurs by that time.

Key points for resolution:

  • The indictment must be issued directly by the DOJ (federal), not state or local prosecutors

  • The person must be a Democratic governor either at the time of indictment or at some point during the resolution period

  • The charges must be criminal in nature, not civil

Considerations

  • The DOJ typically maintains strict confidentiality about ongoing investigations until an indictment is announced

  • Political sensitivities and DOJ policies regarding the timing of politically significant indictments (especially around elections) may influence when any potential indictment is announced

  • The recent case involving NYC Mayor Eric Adams and the DOJ's handling of potential corruption charges provides some insight into how the department approaches cases involving high-profile Democratic officials

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules