Will Agrippa and Sapphire implement MVP of a Solana-based Manifold clone before end of May?
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The bulk of labor started in May.
MVP Features: market creation, browsing, entering and exiting positions, resolving markets, trading
Not MVP: User profiles, social features (commenting and such), historical data visualizations
No other developers will be hired or contracted.
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@Austin
I think the betting experience can be improved on thin markets, for example if you can use the same pool of funds to make many bets and they just get filled until you run out of money (though thats not part of our MVP).
I'm a bit interested in Hanson's Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/mktscore.pdf but I am coming up against the limits of my cognitive abilities when trying to evaluate it. I also encountered this: https://blog.zeitgeist.pm/introducing-zeitgeists-rikiddo-scoring-rule/ from a project I hadn't heard of, apparently some Futarchy focused L1. It seems interesting from a UX perspective. Would appreciate other people's thoughts. But since orderbooks are the standard for real-money markets, and I can't find anyone who says this is stupid, I haven't invested further in trying to understand.
Yeah we are familiar with Serum and plug it in as an optional orderbook backend for markets. Right now you have to lock up about 300 USD to make a Serum orderbook, which we dont really think is acceptable for the small scale use case. We also think Serum is extreme overkill for such thin and low volume orderbooks.
Oh absolutely, we basically view liquidity provisioning as pure altruism/"paying for info" at the moment. (If anyone has good solutions to this, we'd pay fat bounties haha)
It's not clear that the betting experience is good using orderbooks in thin markets. But we'd love to be proven wrong!
Also, I assume you're familiar with https://www.projectserum.com/ in terms of orderbooks on Solana?
Hrm the trouble with orderbooks is that you get very wide spreads, especially if you're going for the "anyone can create a market" vibe that Manifold has. AMMs can be really simple to implement too!
I think an orderbook backed by an AMM like Maniswap https://bit.ly/maniswap is the right way to go (we'll probably have an orderbook up sometime, I'd guess 80% likely in 2 months)
@Austin we intend to use orderbooks on conditional tokens.
The main pitch of going crypto is of course the ability to use real money
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