Will Agrippa and Sapphire implement MVP of a Solana-based Manifold clone before end of May?
95%
chance
May 31
M$1,327 bet
The bulk of labor started in May. MVP Features: market creation, browsing, entering and exiting positions, resolving markets, trading Not MVP: User profiles, social features (commenting and such), historical data visualizations No other developers will be hired or contracted.
mqp

Marshall Polaris bought M$75 of YES13 days ago

Taking Adam and Yev's money
agrippa

agrippa bought M$50 of YES13 days ago

@mqp me too
Yev

Yev bought M$10 of NO12 days ago

@mqp Take some more!
Yev

Yev bought M$32 of NO13 days ago

Subsidy
Adam

Adam bought M$15 of NO13 days ago

bit of bounty
EllieHigh

Ellie High bought M$26 of NO13 days ago

i think it will probably happen but i don't believe in an 89% chance of agrippa doing anything for a month
agrippa

agrippa is betting YES at 94% 15 days ago

@Austin I think the betting experience can be improved on thin markets, for example if you can use the same pool of funds to make many bets and they just get filled until you run out of money (though thats not part of our MVP). I'm a bit interested in Hanson's Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/mktscore.pdf but I am coming up against the limits of my cognitive abilities when trying to evaluate it. I also encountered this: https://blog.zeitgeist.pm/introducing-zeitgeists-rikiddo-scoring-rule/ from a project I hadn't heard of, apparently some Futarchy focused L1. It seems interesting from a UX perspective. Would appreciate other people's thoughts. But since orderbooks are the standard for real-money markets, and I can't find anyone who says this is stupid, I haven't invested further in trying to understand. Yeah we are familiar with Serum and plug it in as an optional orderbook backend for markets. Right now you have to lock up about 300 USD to make a Serum orderbook, which we dont really think is acceptable for the small scale use case. We also think Serum is extreme overkill for such thin and low volume orderbooks.
Austin

Austin is betting YES at 94% 15 days ago

Oh absolutely, we basically view liquidity provisioning as pure altruism/"paying for info" at the moment. (If anyone has good solutions to this, we'd pay fat bounties haha) It's not clear that the betting experience is good using orderbooks in thin markets. But we'd love to be proven wrong! Also, I assume you're familiar with https://www.projectserum.com/ in terms of orderbooks on Solana?
agrippa

agrippa is betting YES at 94% 15 days ago

Constant product AMMs have really bad properties for liquidity providers when applied to prediction markets, since impermanent loss can be very high. If I LP "YES" at 75% odds, and then it goes to 10% (and stays there until resolution), I've lost 35.5% of my liquidity provision.
Austin

Austin is betting YES at 94% 15 days ago

Hrm the trouble with orderbooks is that you get very wide spreads, especially if you're going for the "anyone can create a market" vibe that Manifold has. AMMs can be really simple to implement too! I think an orderbook backed by an AMM like Maniswap https://bit.ly/maniswap is the right way to go (we'll probably have an orderbook up sometime, I'd guess 80% likely in 2 months)
agrippa

agrippa is betting YES at 94% 15 days ago

I'd be interested in talking more about mechanism design, though everyone I've talked to that knows more than me on the topic (Loki, Sapphire) seems to have highest odds on orderbooks being ideal.
agrippa

agrippa is betting YES at 94% 15 days ago

@Austin we intend to use orderbooks on conditional tokens. The main pitch of going crypto is of course the ability to use real money
agrippa

agrippa bought M$100 of YES15 days ago

yes i think so because I am a god gamer
Austin

Austin bought M$10 of YES15 days ago

Would love to see it! Fun fact, our original proposal to ACX grant had us build a Dynamic Parimutuel system on Solana. We've since pivoted away from both Solana and DPM, but it'd be cool to see the original vision fulfilled!