Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the date (Pacific Time) on which Anthropic implements access model for Claude Fable 5 for paid subscribers (on Pro, Max, or Team plans) without qualifying it as "until a certain date".

This date will be defined as either:

1. The Transition to Credit-Only Access: The first calendar day after the final temporary promotional "extension" expires, when Fable 5 officially moves to a permanent, separately billed usage-credit model for subscribers with no further temporary extensions.

2. Permanent Subscription Integration: The day Anthropic permanently integrates Fable 5 as a standard, ongoing included model in Claude subscription plans without any temporary promotional caps or expiration deadlines.

"Permanent" refers to expected continual availability, unrelated to deprecation. If Fable 5 is deprecated without ever being "permanent", then that counts as "never". Any model in the 5.x series counts as Fable 5 for this market. Other models from Anthropic deemed to be "Fable class" do not

The current promotional extension is scheduled through July 19, 2026. If Anthropic announces subsequent temporary extensions, this market will remain open until a permanent policy is enacted.

The primary sources of truth will be the Anthropic Newsroom, the Claude Help Center, and official updates from the @claudeai or @AnthropicAI X accounts.

Background

Following its redeployment on July 1, 2026, after temporary US government export control suspension, Claude Fable 5 was offered to Claude Pro, Max, and Team subscribers on a promotional basis. Under this promotion, users could spend up to 50% of their weekly subscription limits on Fable 5 at no extra charge, after which they were expected to transition to credit-only billing ($10/MTok input, $50/MTok output).

Instead of cutting off promotional access on the original July 7 deadline, Anthropic repeatedly issued short-term "extensions" (first to July 12, then to July 19), allowing users to continue utilizing the model under the promotional cap. This market tracks when Anthropic establishes a permanent long-term billing or inclusion model for Fable 5 subscribers.