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MANIFOLD
When will the next Claude Fable be released?
4
Ṁ1kṀ63
2027
October 17, 2026
42%
Before August 2026
47%
Before September 2026
50%
Before October 2026
50%
Before November 2026
50%
Before December 2026
56%
Before January 2027

Resolves YES when Anthropic's next Fable-class model is released to the public (e.g. Fable 5.1) This market will resolve YES even if the model's release is restricted to particular countries, as long as it is publicly available within those countries (a Glasswing situation would not count).

If the model is not named Fable, it can still resolve YES if public statements from Anthropic indicate it is a Mythos/Fable-class model, but new Opus/Sonnet/Haiku models would not cause this market to resolve YES, even if they were more capable then the current Fable 5 model.

At the time of the model's release, all options that are correct will resolve YES. All options resolve NO if no such model is released by the end of 2026. I will resolve options as they become resolvable.

The cutoff for each month is midnight Pacific Time on the month's last day.

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