My original market on this was a yes/no by 2029, and it's currently (2025-07-24) at 12%. I'm authoring this market to explore other parts of the probability distruction.
A law affirming this status or sufficiently clear case law will count for a YES resolution. Lack of law forbidding it will count as NO unless there are examples of that government allowing and recognizing human-AI marriages in practice.
Civil partnerships or other "marriage by another name" statuses will count as NO for resolution.
Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An unused law affirming human-AI marriage will be sufficient for a YES resolution, unless there is serious doubt that the law could be used in practice.
1,000@VitorBosshard Correct.
Also, I just noticed that the wording of the title suggests the criterion is a particular marriage being recognized, while the description about the law. So if there were a law no one had ever made use of, the two would conflict. I'll stick to the broader YES criteria (unused law suffices) unless there is a serious doubt that the law could be used in practice.