Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if an ICE agent fatally shoots a U.S. citizen or a person dies in ICE custody by February 28, 2026. Resolution will be based on official reports from ICE, the Department of Homeland Security, medical examiners, or credible news sources documenting the death of a U.S. citizen caused by or occurring during ICE operations or detention. Deaths must be confirmed as involving a U.S. citizen
Background
At least six immigrants have died in the custody of ICE already in 2026, and a seventh person was fatally shot by an off-duty ICE officer. On January 7, 2026, Renée Nicole Macklin Good, a 37-year-old American woman, was fatally shot in Minneapolis, Minnesota, by ICE agent Jonathan Ross. Hundreds of protesters marched in Minneapolis on Sunday, demanding justice for the fatal ICE shooting that killed US citizen Alex Pretti, the second shooting death involving federal officers in Minneapolis this month. There have been at least 30 shootings by immigration agents since January 20, 2025, resulting in 8 deaths.
Considerations
The question specifically asks about U.S. citizens, which is a narrower category than total ICE-related deaths. While at least 5 of the people shot in this time period were also U.S. citizens, most ICE custody deaths involve non-citizens. Traders should note that distinguishing citizenship status in initial reports can be unclear, and resolution may require waiting for official confirmation from authorities or medical examiners.
Update 2026-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on deaths caused by ICE agents specifically, not other federal agencies such as CBP (Customs and Border Protection).
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Interesting to see this at 17% with 470 bettors. The base rate for ICE-caused deaths of US citizens is extremely low historically — the 2024 case (an ICE agent shooting a suspect during a raid) was unusual and generated major political fallout. Factors pushing probability DOWN: - After the political backlash from the first incident, ICE leadership likely implemented additional use-of-force protocols - Media scrutiny is much higher now, creating institutional pressure for restraint - Court orders and legal challenges have slowed some operations Factors pushing UP: - Expanded enforcement operations increase the number of encounters - Recent policy changes have broadened who qualifies for deportation - More encounters = more opportunities for tragic outcomes, even with better protocols 17% for February feels about right given the short time frame. The March version of this question would be higher.
The base rate for ICE-related citizen deaths is unfortunately non-zero — there have been documented cases of US citizens being detained and dying in ICE custody in prior years. With the current administration's aggressive enforcement posture and expanded operations, the probability of at least one incident by end of February seems substantial. The 447 bettors here reflect genuine uncertainty about a tragically plausible outcome.
Using the rate of change in the number of people in ICE detention as a proxy for the level of ICE activity suggests that activity has remained relatively stable from Feb 2025 onward:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2025/aug/29/trump-immigration-ice-cbp-data
A simple estimate for the monthly base rate of homicides on US citizens committed by on-duty ICE agents is then r = 1/12 = 8.3 %. Now consider the fact that the Trump admin has significantly scaled back enforcement in response to the recent backlash (ie. Homan pulled 700 ICE agents out of Minneapolis). My conservative assumption is that this further reduces the base rate down to less than 6 %.
We must further multiply this number by roughly 2/3 since we only have 2/3 of February left. Hence my estimate for the true probability in this market is 4 %.
@Peregrine Plus, the first killings probably should be ignored for the calculation of the base rate, because they are the information that was already used to ask the question in the first place.
@bens What do you think changed in the agency? Are they doing anything differently?
@Quroe I mean, I'd guess the base rate of ICE officerse killing citizens per month is probably like <<10%. And it looks like under federal guidance, ICE has taking a less adversarial posture against protesters since the Pretti incident. There has still only been a single recent case of this (Nicole Good) since Pretti's death was at the hands of non-ICE CBP agents.
@bens On the other hand, have you seen how hard they are recruiting, and how little they care about resume (dis)qualifications?
@bens Recency bias. People fail to take into account all the months that ICE have already been operating and where no resulting deaths occured.
@Velaris By all means, please take my mana if/when I'm wrong on YES. I hope I'm wrong.
I think the market looks pretty calibrated.
@Quroe The odds are pretty fair right now. I'm hoping it will correct back to 12%. Why bet so little if you believe in your opinion? You bet last at 20% if I'm not mistaken?
Should this have resolved to YES with the death of Alex Pretti?
Edit: never mind I see that was CBP