Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran's government officially announces a blockade or closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasting more than 48 consecutive hours by July 31, 2026. An official announcement must come from Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Supreme Leader, or other authorized government body through official state media or diplomatic channels. The blockade/closure must be explicitly stated as an official policy action, not merely threatened or discussed by parliament or lower officials.

The market resolves NO if no such official announcement occurs by the deadline, or if Iran announces a blockade but does not maintain it for the required 48-hour duration.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points. During 2023–2025, 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas and 25% of seaborne oil trade passes through the strait annually.

Revolutionary Guards commander Esmaeil Kousari confirmed that shutting the strait would be executed "whenever necessary", to protect national sovereignty and deter further foreign aggression. In June 2025, it was reported that U.S. intelligence detected that Iranian military forces loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf, an act which was interpreted as a preliminary step to blockading the strait. The mines were ultimately not deployed, though their presence raised alarms in Washington about Tehran's intent to escalate the conflict.

As of June 2025, the strait has never been closed during Middle East conflicts, unlike the Straits of Tiran, though Iran threatens to close the strait, and preparations to mine it have been undertaken. Iran issued similar threats in 2008, 2011-2012, and 2018-2019, but a full blockade of the strait has never been carried out.

Considerations

The possibility of a closure of the strait is low, experts said, despite Tehran's rhetoric around closing the strait. A closure would provoke Iran's markets in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports. With thousands each of naval mines, attack UAVs, and missiles in its arsenal, Iran has the capacity to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. But in the face of a determined US response, Iran is not capable of completely closing the strait.

This description was generated by AI.