On June 21st 2026 this market will close and I will create a poll that stays open for one week and asks "Do you think the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides was a good decision?" with options YES and NO.
How will the poll resolve? A perfect tie in the poll counts as neutral and this market will resolve NO.
Update 2026-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has linked the resolution poll: @AlexanderTheGreater/do-you-think-the-us-bombing-of-iran
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@AlexanderTheGreater I'm not surprised at all. The vibes are bad because we lost the more recent war, and votes in polls are based on vibes, even here. I bet NO on this market and voted YES in the poll.
@AlexanderTheGreater The bombing achieved nothing (for proof, see the current war). So even if you only care about the direct results and don’t care about things like diplomatic relationships, national sovereignty, or it leading to the current war, it was clearly useless. When you add all those other factors, it’s clearly quite negative in value.
@Gabrielle in the very least the bombings a year ago set back the Iranian nuclear program substantially.
The new war wasn't necessary due to the nuclear program but due to Iran's continued manufacturing of ballistic missiles that outpaced western manufacturing of interoceptors and due to Iran's continued funding of terrorist groups in the region.
@AlexanderTheGreater the problem is that it also increased Iran's motivation to actually build nukes, so in total it might have hastened the outcome it was trying to prevent (we'll probably never know for sure, hard to prove a counterfactual, but it is a real possibility)
That is when the war really started. https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/