What is LK-99, the subject of this paper:

https://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/landing/article.kci?arti_id=ART002955269#none

I am interested only in its behavior at near room temperature and ambient pressure per discussion in the comments.

Resolves based on my best estimation at the end of this year. I will base my opinion on the consensus of expert condensed matter researchers.

상온상압 초전도체(LK-99) 개발을 위한 고찰

한국결정성장학회지, 2023, 33 (2), 61

Edit 2022-08-01 15:23:00 EST:

To clarify further, the "Some type of superconductor, but not at room temperature with near-ambient pressure." is NOT going to be the winner. It is not mutually exclusive with the other options, degrading the market. You can sell it down to zero for free Mana. Do NOT buy that option.

If the Meissner effect videos were taken with the material super-cooled, and the material is otherwise uninteresting I will rule as "a complete fabrication". If the videos were taken super-cooled. and the material is a powerful diamagnet at room temp, I will resolve diamagnet.

EDIT 2022-08-01 15:37 EST:

My goal is for the top choices at the end to be mutually exclusive and reasonably comprehensive. To that end, I may introduce new choices that are more descriptive and mutually exclusive and/or choose to NOT resolve in favor of existing choices. For example, if someone points out (hypothetically) that Type I and Type III SC's are not mutually exclusive or something, I may create a new option that rescues mutual exclusivity and choose NOT to pick either of those options. In addition, if there is a new option that comes to light in peer review, I am likely to make an option for it -- rather than letting the market simply resolve as "Other".

EDIT 2022-08-08 00:04:00 EST

Consider the three types of magnetism as a set S = {diamagnetism, paramagnetism, ferromagnetism}. The lack of a specific member of set S in an answer choice is understood to mean its absence in LK-99. I will also resolve the question in favor of the most specific descriptor. For example, if LK-99 is found to be ferromagnetic and powerfully diamagnetic, I will resolve in favor of the answer choice that has both of these. If the amount of a certain kind of magnetism is de minimis (ie non-exotic, commonly found in other materials), I may ignore it. For example, if LK-99 is only very slightly paramagnetic, I may choose to ignore that aspect of it in determining the answer.

EDIT 2022-08-29 19:30:00 EST

This paper suggests to me that LK-99 is in the normal range of diamagnetism for an insulator, but shows an interesting amount of ferromagnetism (which would be an important component in explaining the partial levitation). The research was done to a high standard and the purity is unsurpassed per XRD, so this is pretty strong evidence (albeit not conclusive). I'm unlikely to resolve this market until we see peer reviewed papers.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.06256.pdf

Notably, if we see superconductivity when synthesized as a thin film, I will likely resolve in favor of one of the superconducitivity choices -- even if the bulk material is conclusively shown to not be superconducting.