Background
Anthony Albanese's approval rating was 43% in the last Essential poll before the Bondi shooting and 47% in the last Newspoll before the Bondi shooting.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve 'Increase' if, in the first Essential poll and the first Newspoll conducted after the Bondi shooting, Anthony Albanese's average approval rating across the two polls is 48.0% or higher.
This market will resolve 'Decrease' if, in the first Essential poll and the first Newspoll conducted after the Bondi shooting, Anthony Albanese's average approval rating across the two polls is 42.0% or lower.
This market will resolve 50% to 'Increase' and 50% to 'Decrease' if, in the first Essential poll and the first Newspoll conducted after the Bondi shooting, Anthony Albanese's average approval rating across the two polls is higher than 42.0% but lower than 48.0%.
Clarifications
The close date is indicative only.
I will not trade in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
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@creator https://web.archive.org/web/20260127191542/https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jan/28/guardian-essential-poll-one-nation-coalition-liberal-national-labor-anthony-albanese-bondi-attack-ntwnfb
"But the prime minister’s approval ratings to start the year also fell, with 39 approval and 53 disapproval – a drop from December’s 43-45 respectively."