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MANIFOLD
Six months into the PM job, what will Andy Burnham's approval be according to Politico's poll aggregator?
4
Ṁ200Ṁ361
Dec 31
39.6 percent
expected
10%
Below 20%
18%
20 - 29.9%
22%
30 - 39.9%
24%
40 - 49.9%
17%
50 - 59.9%
6%
60 - 69.9%
3%
70 - 100%

If Andy Burnham is not UK Prime Minister before October 1st, resolves N/A.

Six months from the day Burnham takes office, I'll look at the most recent available point on Politico's poll aggregator and read off the integer value of "Approve" (absolute approval, not net approval).


E.g. for Starmer this would resolve based on a reading of 21.

In the event that he leaves office before this point or the politico tracker is not recently updated, I'll use the most recent prior available point.

If there is no Politico tracker available I will use the best available poll aggregator, or failing that my own aggregation of available polls.

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