What % of Manifold users think it's acceptable for me to bet in my college application markets before I receive a decision from that college?
What % of Manifold users think it's acceptable for me to bet in my college application markets before I receive a decision from that college?
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300Ṁ8379resolved Nov 9
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YES1H
6H
1D
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1M
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Resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the below poll in 2 weeks.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
By the end of 2025, will players at Magic: The Gathering tournaments be allowed to use Manifold to bet on them?
8% chance
On which days will real-money betting on Manifold be possible for a majority of American adults?
Should market creators on manifold avoid ever betting on their own markets?
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Is betting on your own markets acceptable?
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Will 10% or more of new Manifold users develop a gambling addiction that they categorize as problematic?
19% chance
Will Manifold offer real money betting again before the end of 2026?
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