Will we find out by the end of 2024 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
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resolved Jun 1
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YES

Could've been using it in 2023 or 2022 or 2021, but the discovery of specifically using LLMs for specifically generating propaganda messages happens before end of 2024

Gary marcus seems to think so.

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DanboughtṀ4,000YES

The Russian networks are almost certainly connected to the government but even if that doesn't count, Spamoflauge has direct attribution:

@DanMan314 Seems right to me. Does anyone else think this shouldn't resolve YES on this?

@jacksonpolack Quick bump, thanks!

This seemed relevant: https://www.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/comments/17j7iey/to_use_ai_generated_image_to_spread_propaganda/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 (Chen Weihua (Chinese: 陈卫华) is a Chinese journalist, currently serving as EU bureau chief of China Daily, an English-language newspaper owned by the Chinese Communist Party. - Wikipedia)

predictedYES

Isn't it already happening in India, Russia and Venezuela?

@amaurylorin How do we know?

@sixtynine I expect countries to accuse each other of this. We need clear criteria for what counts as “finding out”

@mariopasquato accusations won't count. Some concrete evidence or reporting of concrete evidence by a highly reputable media organisation would count, to give one example

I expect it will be reported regardless of whether it's true. Though, y'know, probably.

@AndrewHartman market's already at 90% , it is an election year in the US, and India (the most populous country in the world). Chances are it'll be reported, but >90%? Idk. We've seen the 2023 market swing wildly.

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