Will we find out by the end of 2024 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
45
1kṀ6501resolved Jun 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Could've been using it in 2023 or 2022 or 2021, but the discovery of specifically using LLMs for specifically generating propaganda messages happens before end of 2024
Gary marcus seems to think so.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ132 | |
2 | Ṁ27 | |
3 | Ṁ27 | |
4 | Ṁ24 | |
5 | Ṁ22 |
People are also trading
Related questions
When will we find out about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages, what quarter of what year?
Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?
23% chance
Will flagship LLMs begin integrating advertisements into their responses before 2026?
25% chance
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
50% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]
31% chance
Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
32% chance
Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?
61% chance
In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?
62% chance