Will the best LLM in 2023 have <1 trillion parameters?
28
490Ṁ7076resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conversational LLM
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ25 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
People are also trading
Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?
90% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters?
40% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
26% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
42% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters?
24% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters?
30% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <500 billion parameters?
15% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
27% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?
13% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters?
12% chance
Sort by:
@firstuserhere how will you resolve if the parameter count for the best LLM is not released by year end?
@ShadowyZephyr I changed the criteria and removed "Subjective". I'll consider the top objectively best LLMs and in case its a tight call, only then use my subjective judgement
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?
90% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters?
40% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
26% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
42% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters?
24% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters?
30% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <500 billion parameters?
15% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
27% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?
13% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters?
12% chance