Will Rabbit sell X units of their "R1" device? (2024)

1.6kṀ9005

Jan 17

ALL

X = 1,000,000

X = 10,000,000

Resolved

YES

X = 1

Resolved

YES

X = 10

Resolved

YES

X = 10,000

Resolved

YES

X = 100

Resolved

YES

X = 100,000

Resolved

YES

X = 1000

Will Rabbit sell X units of their product R1 by the end of 2024?

Currently you can go to rabbit.tech to register pre-orders but actual shipping is supposed to start in March

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answered1y

X = 100,000

bought Ṁ500 X = 100,000 YES1y

resolves YES https://twitter.com/rabbit_hmi/status/1771342828532339126

although I see you haven't resolved the others yet, are you only counting it once they actually ship?

12mo

@retr0id correct

12mo

@retr0id all these will resolve to YES - just want to make sure its not a situation where they fail to fulfill orders after accepting money

5mo

@mods I believe all options up to and including X=100,000 can be resolved YES now (creator deleted account)

bought Ṁ100 X = 1,000,000 NO5mo

wait did the @mods ping work

5mo

@retr0id no in the first one you need to click the blue autocomplete, bit silly design imo

reposted 1y

https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/10/24033498/rabbit-r1-sold-out-ces-ai

It doesn’t seem likely that they will share sales numbers especially on the low side, how will you resolve?

@firstuserhere - Can you make explicit the timeframe?

@AIC Yes, added to the title and description. I forgot to do this while making the market, thanks for reminding

I've already seen 3 people having pre-ordered it on twitter and posting about it so ig 10 is doable

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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