When will the Rabbit R1 stop working?
32
312
แน€1.2K
2030
15%
2024
22%
2025
20%
2026
13%
2027
8%
2028
9%
2029
13%
2030+

The Rabbit R1 is a hardware device announced in early 2024 built around cloud-based AI. https://www.rabbit.tech/. Pre-orders cost $199.

This market is for when the cloud services will be turned off, rendering the devices nearly useless. If some batches of R1s last longer than others, only the initial pre-orders will be considered. If the R1 never ships, or only a limited supply of prototype/early access units ship the market will resolve to N/A.

My standard for what "stop working" means is based on how we would expect traditional hardware to behave. The R1 is advertised as "no subscription required", so if a paid subscription becomes a requirement I will count that as it not working. If Rabbit slashes it's functionality below what it was at launch, I will count that as not working. If Rabbit fails to update the R1 and it's integrations (so, for example, it becomes incompatible with some services due to 3rd party changes) but Rabbit does not turn off the servers or actively make the R1 worse I will not count that. I will resolve ambiguous cases based on my own judgment. I will not bet in this market.

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The $200 hardware cost would only buy you a 10 month subscription to chatgpt. I'd hope their in-house systems cost less than that, but they also have to factor in the hardware costs. I'm not optimistic!

bought แน€10 2025 YES

@retr0id The hardware they're using has no secure attestation, and people have already figured out how to install the APK on other devices. https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/30/24145838/rabbit-r1-android-app-pixel-6a

They can't keep offering this for free. I predict something is going to change imminently.

bought แน€10 of 2030+ YES

Bet yes on this market so I either have a cool toy or a bunch of Mana. I always come out on top ๐Ÿ˜Ž

how does this resolve if the company goes under, but they open source the backend such that anyone can run their own personal one?

@nyanotech if pushing the button no longer makes it go I will count that as not working. might make an exception if there's an easy and free way to restore full functionality (like pointing it at a different backend), but having to fully self-host would not count.

reposted

I was hoping someone would make this, cool market.

@firstuserhere what happens when rabbit drops support for r1 but it keeps working, just not actively maintained?

@firstuserhere I feel like I defined that pretty well? If you can press the button and it does things similar to or better than launch, it's still working. some degradations in 3rd party integrations are permissible as long as it doesn't seem Rabbit is doing them intentionally, but any significant slashing or disabling Rabbit does counts as it not working.