Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)?
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204
Ṁ120k
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
NO

If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date\

Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas

#AI
#OpenAI
#GPT-5 Speculation
#OpenAI Crisis
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bought Ṁ8,893 NO

@mods resolves NO

bought Ṁ600 NO

https://in.mashable.com/tech/77593/openais-gpt-5-pushed-back-to-late-2025-but-promises-phd-level-abilities

bought Ṁ100 YES

How does this resolve if their next major model is not called "GPT-5", but rather, say, a name like Claude or Grok (or anything else for that matter)?

@benshindel hedge

because if "GPT-5" is not released before elections, this resolves to NO

@firstuserhere oh I'm already very hedged on that front, but I'm actually shocked that market is so high! I bet it down a bunch

There might not be a GPT-5 at all

bought Ṁ100 NO from 64% to 59%

Same question but for the "SORA" model:

reposted

reposting

I bet they will release it soon

this implies a ~35% chance it gets released in november or december? huh

predicted NO

@Bayesian Rather, it implies 35% chance it doesn't get released until November.

reposted

reposting

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