Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)? | Manifold

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)?

Plus

204

Ṁ120k

resolved Nov 7

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date\

Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#GPT-5 Speculation

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ8,893 NO

@mods resolves NO

bought Ṁ600 NO

https://in.mashable.com/tech/77593/openais-gpt-5-pushed-back-to-late-2025-but-promises-phd-level-abilities

bought Ṁ100 YES

How does this resolve if their next major model is not called "GPT-5", but rather, say, a name like Claude or Grok (or anything else for that matter)?

@benshindel hedge

because if "GPT-5" is not released before elections, this resolves to NO

@firstuserhere oh I'm already very hedged on that front, but I'm actually shocked that market is so high! I bet it down a bunch

There might not be a GPT-5 at all

bought Ṁ100 NO from 64% to 59%

Same question but for the "SORA" model:

reposted

reposting

I bet they will release it soon

this implies a ~35% chance it gets released in november or december? huh

predictedNO

@Bayesian Rather, it implies 35% chance it doesn't get released until November.

reposted

reposting

Related questions

By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

When will OpenAI release GPT-5?

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?

Will OpenAI Publicly Release GPT-5 on or before 1st Jan 2026?

Will OpenAI release GTP-4.5 before GPT-5?

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?

Will OpenAI release a GPT-4 agent product before GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 be released before Joe Biden ceases to be president?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Related questions

By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

Will OpenAI release GTP-4.5 before GPT-5?

In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?

When will OpenAI release GPT-5?

Will OpenAI release a GPT-4 agent product before GPT-5?

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?

Will GPT-5 be released before Joe Biden ceases to be president?

Will OpenAI Publicly Release GPT-5 on or before 1st Jan 2026?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules