Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)?
Dec 4

If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date\

Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ100 YES

How does this resolve if their next major model is not called "GPT-5", but rather, say, a name like Claude or Grok (or anything else for that matter)?

@benshindel hedge

because if "GPT-5" is not released before elections, this resolves to NO

@firstuserhere oh I'm already very hedged on that front, but I'm actually shocked that market is so high! I bet it down a bunch

There might not be a GPT-5 at all

bought Ṁ100 NO from 64% to 59%

Same question but for the "SORA" model:



bought Ṁ5 of YES

I bet they will release it soon

bought Ṁ20 of YES

this implies a ~35% chance it gets released in november or december? huh

predicts NO

@Bayesian Rather, it implies 35% chance it doesn't get released until November.



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