Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X? | Manifold

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X?

24

2.2kṀ5179

2040

0.8%

X = 2024

5%

X = 2025

6%

X = 2026

8%

X = 2027

10%

X = 2028

11%

X = 2029

11%

X = 2030

12%

X = 2031

12%

X = 2032

12%

X = 2033

12%

X = 2034

superconductivity

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When/how will any of these markets resolve NO?

What happens if X>2034? My first estimate is around 2050.

@Willi If you're interested in years beyond the scope of this market, i'd recommend setting a new prediction market

Do all questions only resolve in/after 2034? The question says "before year X". Does that mean "X = 2024" resolves yes if it later turns out RTAP superconductor was already found in 2023 or earlier?

@GrassomannGrassomann yes, if lk99 is real, all resolve yes

reposted

Multi-year time line. Let's settle it.

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