Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X? | Manifold

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X?

Science superconductivity LK-99

Basic

24

Ṁ4.9k

2040

1D

1W

1M

ALL

3%

X = 2024

5%

X = 2025

6%

X = 2026

8%

X = 2027

10%

X = 2028

11%

X = 2029

11%

X = 2030

12%

X = 2031

12%

X = 2032

12%

X = 2033

12%

X = 2034

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When/how will any of these markets resolve NO?

What happens if X>2034? My first estimate is around 2050.

@Willi If you're interested in years beyond the scope of this market, i'd recommend setting a new prediction market

Do all questions only resolve in/after 2034? The question says "before year X". Does that mean "X = 2024" resolves yes if it later turns out RTAP superconductor was already found in 2023 or earlier?

@GrassomannGrassomann yes, if lk99 is real, all resolve yes

reposted

Multi-year time line. Let's settle it.

Related questions

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?

Will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved before 2030?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Will we find a superconductor working at temperature above -100 °C at room pressure?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

Related questions

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved before 2030?

Will we find a superconductor working at temperature above -100 °C at room pressure?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?