Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X?
23
268
2.2k
2040
4%
X = 2024
5%
X = 2025
6%
X = 2026
8%
X = 2027
10%
X = 2028
11%
X = 2029
11%
X = 2030
12%
X = 2031
12%
X = 2032
12%
X = 2033
12%
X = 2034

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When/how will any of these markets resolve NO?

What happens if X>2034? My first estimate is around 2050.

@Willi If you're interested in years beyond the scope of this market, i'd recommend setting a new prediction market

Do all questions only resolve in/after 2034? The question says "before year X". Does that mean "X = 2024" resolves yes if it later turns out RTAP superconductor was already found in 2023 or earlier?

@GrassomannGrassomann yes, if lk99 is real, all resolve yes

reposted

Multi-year time line. Let's settle it.

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