Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030? | Manifold

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

LK-99 •superconductivity

97

379

Ṁ95K

Ṁ1.2K

2031

13%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, there is a material that scientists/engineers widely agree is a superconductor at room temperature and pressure.

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sold Ṁ10 of YES

Just made a trade here while testing out an arb bot, but I think this market might be a little subjective, so I am selling.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Arbitrage:

https://manifold.markets/AaronLehmann/will-a-roomtemperature-atmospheric

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

24% chance. To qualify, the material must act as a superconductor above 0C.

predicts YES

@benshindel note that one ends a year earlier

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