Which 3 AI labs/companies will make the most impact in 2024 (technical contributions to the field of AI)?
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Dec 31
30%
OpenAI
27%
Anthropic
21%
Meta
13%
Google Deepmind
3%
Bytedance
2%
Other
1.2%
Mistral
1.1%
NVIDIA
1%
Microsoft

Resolves to a mix of a poll and my subjective judgement, the latter weighed no more than 30% at max.

1st place : 50%

2nd place: 35%

3rd place: 15%

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How can OpenAI/Antrhopic make any technical contributions to the field when they hold everything that could be a technical contribution as a trade secret? Both of those companies only share research which is more or less insignificant but can be cited in policy proposals about how potentially dangerous AI could be (and not is).

@MADGAMBLER6969 they can have the best model that can serve as a pacemaker, or can have legislative impact but I would not count those as technical contributions.

bought Ṁ20 of Meta YES

Meta has demonstrated that it’s willing to go all-in (Metaverse) and still has enough cash to do so with AI. They’ve already released some good stuff. There’s a chance that LLMs have synergies with established metaverse investments. None of these options are a slam dunk but it is way undervalued here (well, before I bid up, at least)

@MatthewRitter yes, i'm a fan of their RayBans collaboration for smart glasses as well

@firstuserhere Their segment anything was cool too. Many contributions, undervalued true (https://segment-anything.com/)

bought Ṁ5 of Mistral YES

Wait why separate google and deepmind hahaha

bought Ṁ10 of Mistral NO

@Joshua there's also https://research.google/ which is like 90% AI research

@Joshua Deepmind became Google Deepmind by the merger but Google has lots of other AI teams.

bought Ṁ5 of Google Deepmind YES

@firstuserhere Gotcha. So if Gemini Ultra is super great, that should get credited to Deepmind specifically right?

@Joshua i've not even looked at gemini's announcement post yet, maybe someone who has or works at google could speak to that?

@firstuserhere At max, an email to the right person should answer that.