What do you think will be GPT-5's "hook"?
61
2.1kṀ4329
2031
89%
No model picker
74%
Personalized to you, the user
68%
Trained on synthetic data
56%
Very large context window, or another way to give the model long-term memory
51%
Faster speed(smaller model, architecture improvements, mixture of experts keeping most parameters unused during inference, etc.)
47%
Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price must be lower)
41%
Online learning of specialized agents(finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)
38%
Exact-query of training data or knowledge databases(similar to Google RETRO)
34%
Operates autonomously with instructions from you
32%
capable of online learning
28%
New Neural Network Architecture
25%
Audio Modality
24%
Seed option to create the question
22%
(Near) real-time update of training data (data delay is within 6 months and is kept updated)
21%
Acts autonomously
16%
Has a catchier name
1.2%
Video Modality

Add your predictions. I will not trade heavily (i may make small predictions with 1 mana for myself) because my subjective judgement might come into play.

Resolves YES to those that are more or less correct (resolves according to the spirit) or to 50% (if technically true but not in spirit) or to NO (if not true).

All predictions will be evaluated upon a release, if there ever is one.

Do not submit spam or irrelevant options, those will be N/A'd

Inspired by this tweet (by @Mira )

If no GPT-5 is released this decade, the market will be N/A'd. You can trade on whether that will happen here:

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bought Ṁ10 NO

What happens when an account is deleted? Can a mod resolve the market?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@ChinmayTheMathGuy meaning 1 unified model that routes between submodels

@ChinmayTheMathGuy https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-system-card/

bought Ṁ75 YES

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

Both Mark Chen (interview with Matthew Berman) and Sam Altman (interview with Cleo Abram)

mentioned this. It's also in their model card.

bought Ṁ20 YES

This was showcased in the mrwhosetheboss video about GPT-5 (over 2M views in <1 day, by far most watched video about GPT-5) so I think it should resolve yes

bought Ṁ10 YES

What is google RETRO? Can’t find any mentions of it online

@mariopasquato @Mira @MiraBot

@mariopasquato https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04426

WTF why do Google scientists not understand how big O notation works? I've seen people misuse big O notation like this in every day use but in a paper this is too much

reposted

reposting because the launch may be near

bought Ṁ70 NO

This market only applies to AIs called GPT-5, so this is technically impossible

Imagine ChatGPT but Google gave it all of your info

To clarify, this needs to be something significantly different. Something like Flash-attention that's just a faster version of transformers won't count. It doesn't necessarily need to not contain transformers, but it needs to be a bigger change than an improvement to a single aspect of the architecture or a better implementation

Resolves to whether the prediction was correct or whether it was a "hook" i.e. heavily advertised by OpenAI as its distinguishing feature, or notable in being different from other leading models?

@Mira To a hook.

@Mira

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