By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.
17
Never closes
<10%
10-30%
30-50%
50-70%
70-90%
>90%
Angry Birds is a game where players try to efficiently destroy 2D
block towers with a catapult.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
54% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?
13% chance
By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.
77% chance
By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time,
given a video of the screen.
79% chance
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
35% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
79% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the
best Go players have played.
47% chance
By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam
competition.
71% chance