Something happens is defined as anything that:

1. Zvi does not know about on August 2, 2026 at 5pm EST (he knows about the math proofs, which will be Monday's post)

2. Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase

3. Is about AI.

The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern.

Resolves YES if this happens.

Resolves NO if it does not.

To avoid leaking information, I will not resolve this market before close unless either (A) the post has been published, or (B) it is trading 95%+ and I know that it will eventually resolve YES.