Follow up to /ZviMowshowitz/will-something-happen-this-week-in
Something happening is hereby defined as Zvi making a dedicated blogpost about said AI-related event, similar to OpenAI's Unreleased Model Astra Solves Ten Major Open Mathematics Problems or Further Developments About Internal AI Models Hacking Things, rather than just mentioning it in the regularly-scheduled AI posts. Something like The Three AI Pills won't count because its not about a specific event.
Each week will resolve to "something happened" if:
1) An AI-related event happened that week
2) Zvi made a dedicated post about said event within 14 days of it happening
So i.e. if something happens on Aug 12th, it's OK if the post about it comes out any time on or before Aug 26th.
Market will resolve based off the spirit of the stated criteria, various technicalities won't count. The intent is to see whether we're about to approach a "singularity of AI news" where something keeps happening every single week.
The market will start from the week of Aug 9th.
Clarification from Aug 17th: any dedicated post about a specific AI event in that week counts, even if it wasn't an urgent/time-sensitive post.
1,000This might do it this week: Andrew Curran (@AndrewCurran_) on X
The American People Really Hate Data Centers => won't count, because its not about a specific event
@nsokolsky Just to clarify, you don't interpret the release of interesting new polling results as an event? What's the difference between that and Anthropic releasing a regularly scheduled report (last week's "event")?
@TimWho the post is about many different polls, all (or almost all) of which weren’t released this week. If it was primarily/only about specific polls released this week, it would count.
Compare that to the Anthropic report, which was a single, specific document released that week.
Anthropic Risk Report: August 2026 => qualifies for this week, because its about a specific event (Anthropic releasing a fresh report) that happened on Monday
@WilliamEhlhardt yep, just has to be a dedicated post about a specific event that happened in AI that week.
